The 2010 New Strategic Arms Control Treaty (New START), the last remaining arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, is set to expire Feb. 5, 2026, with little likelihood that any of its provisions will remain in force.
New START’s expiration marks the removal of quantitative caps on U.S. and Russian long-range nuclear forces for the first time in 35 years. Without the treaty, both countries can (and will) rapidly expand their arsenals, risking a new nuclear arms race with new technology, such as AI, between the largest arsenals, higher risk of nuclear conflict, and an enormous new wave of unnecessary spending on weapons.
The U.S. and Russia could agree to extend the treaty, but there has yet to be a formal agreement.
Now is the time for arms control agreements, especially with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) rapidly modernizing our nuclear stockpile. For example, right here at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL), one of two locations in the U.S. that designs nuclear warheads, NNSA announced its proposal for “Enhanced Plutonium Facility Utilization”.
This proposal would significantly increase the allowable quantities of nuclear weapons-grade plutonium stored at LLNL and trucked in and out of LLNL, using roads such as the nearby I-580. With nuclear modernization driving this major increase in operations at LLNL, arms control treaties like New START are extremely crucial, putting limits on modernization.
With New START likely expiring, it is imperative that we speak up and press for arms control and future negotiations to reduce the nuclear dangers facing America and the world.